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Top Signals: PCE and CPI Reports Hit as Oil Shock Lands, Oil Spikes as Trump Threats End Off-Ramp

Big Movers: Eli Lilly $2.75B AI-drug deal, Polymarket ICE deal, Coinbase OCC approval as a federal trust bank, Oracle cuts jobs to fund AI data center expansion.

Open Deals: Amazon explores a $9B Globalstar acquisition to build an LEO satellite network to take on Starlink.

Mega Rounds: Mistral AI $830M debt raise, Whoop $575M Series G at $10.1B, & Rebellions $400M at $2.3B (eyes 2026 IPO).

Exit Watching: SpaceX lines up “Project Apex” June IPO at ~$1.75T valuation, while OpenAI’s TBPN acquisition signals the next phase of AI narrative/control battles.

The Funding Buzz: Corazon Capital $100M Fund IV to back pre-seed/seed/Series A AI-native companies, Gateway Capital $25M early-stage fintech, healthcare tech fund.

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The Key Signals We are watching this Monday that will shape the week ahead:

PCE and CPI Reports Hit as Oil Shock Lands — February PCE (Thursday) and March CPI (Friday) will show first reads on commodity price impact on US inflation. BNP Paribas warns “first stage of oil price pass-through will have arrived in March” as US gas crosses $4/gallon. Goldman Sachs notes inflation “pushing consumer confidence further downwards from already low levels.” Delta Air Lines Wednesday earnings provide third inflation barometer on jet fuel costs. Headline inflation enters sixth year above target with Strait of Hormuz disruption and tariff pass-through hitting simultaneously.

Why It Matters: This is when energy crisis hits consumer wallets. March CPI captures oil spike’s first wave—$4/gallon gas, jet fuel crushing airlines, fertilizer up 77%. If core inflation also accelerates, Fed faces impossible choice: cut rates for recession or fight inflation’s sixth year above target. Delta’s Wednesday earnings quantify whether airlines pass fuel costs through (making travel unaffordable, cratering demand) or absorb them (collapsing margins). Goldman’s “limited risk” bet assumes current supply shock doesn’t cascade—dangerous when Strait of Hormuz stays closed, strategic reserves deplete in four months, and private credit seizes.

Oil Spikes as Trump Threats End Off-Ramp — Oil surged above $100 after Trump’s Wednesday speech threatened to bomb Iran “back to stone ages.” Capital.com’s Daniela Hathorn: “Markets no longer trading hope of de-escalation, trading probability of escalation.” Rystad Energy warns “remarkable resilience” from pre-war surplus and reserves “is now ending.” Strait of Hormuz traffic remains near zero, alternative routes can’t fill 15M barrel deficit. Oil up 50%+ in five weeks.

Why It Matters: Brief dip below $100 last week was market’s last hope for diplomacy—Trump’s threats killed it. Capital.com says “probability of escalation” means traders see Strait staying closed, strategic reserves running out, and Saudi East-West pipeline (last route, 5M barrels daily) becoming next target. Rystad’s “buffer ending” means pre-war surplus gone, crude-on-water depleted, reserves last four months. Oil at $100 is floor, not ceiling. If East-West pipeline hit, $200 oil becomes baseline, fertilizer craters agriculture, transportation spikes everywhere, and just-in-time supply chains break. Markets are now pricing what’s already locked in.

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Eli Lilly — Partnered with Insilico Medicine in $2.75B deal to market AI-developed drugs globally. $115M upfront, 28 drugs with nearly half in clinical stages.

Marvell — Received a $2B investment from Nvidia for custom AI chips/networking. Focuses on optical interconnects, driving revenue as tech firms increase AI infrastructure spend.

Polymarket — Intercontinental Exchange invested an additional $600M, totaling nearly $2B. Targeting $20B valuation despite regulatory challenges.

Micron — Memory chip maker dropped 30% despite strong earnings. Volatile pricing, geopolitical tensions, market preference for AI chipmakers challenge investor confidence.

Huawei — Shipped 812,000 AI chips as China captures 41% of AI accelerator server market. Nvidia share drops to 55%.

Coinbase — Received conditional OCC approval to operate as federal trust bank. Offers institutional custody, potential stablecoin products, enhanced Circle/USDC partnership.

Oracle — Cutting thousands of jobs to fund AI data center expansion and compete with Microsoft/Google in AI cloud market.

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

SpaceX — Planning IPO targeting $75B raise at $1.75T+ valuation, potentially among largest S&P 500 companies. Could debut June 2026.

OpenAI — Raising $10B from MGX, Coatue, Thrive, boosting total funding over $120B. CFO Sarah Friar confirmed deal closing next week.

Periodic Labs — AI materials discovery startup targets $7B valuation, up from $1.3B. Automates scientific experiments with AI/robotics for semiconductors.

Aetherflux — Orbital data-center startup raising financing at $2B valuation as of March 29, 2026. Developing space-based data solutions as industry leader.

Halter — NZ startup with AI-powered cattle collars approaching $2B valuation. Founders Fund/Thiel spearheading round for virtual fencing/health monitoring.

Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter

Mistral AI — AI infrastructure secured $830M debt for Paris data center with Nvidia chips, operational Q2 2026.

Rebellions — Korean AI chip startup raised $400M at $2.3B valuation. Specializes in AI inference, aiming 2026 IPO for cost-effective solutions.

Whoop — Health-tech startup raised $575M Series G, at $10.1B (up 3x). Backers include Cristiano Ronaldo/LeBron James.

Tenex — Cybersecurity startup raised $250M Series B enhancing AI-driven platform, growing into EMEA for threat detection/response.

Also — Rivian micromobility spinoff raised $200M Series C at $1B valuation. DoorDash board seat, planning autonomous delivery vehicles.

Starcloud — NY space data center startup raised $170M Series A at $1.1B valuation. Launching satellites with advanced GPUs, SpaceX Starship partner.

ScaleOps — Computing efficiency co-founded by Yodar Shafrir raised $130M. Software autonomously reallocates resources, cuts cloud costs up to 80%.

OpenFX — Cross-border payments secured $94M Series A to replace infrastructure with stablecoins. Handles $45B annually, 98% transactions settle under 60 minutes.

Isara — OpenAI invested $94M in software for AI agents collaborating on complex problems. Targets investment firms, future plans for biotech/geopolitical analysis.

Coder — Austin cloud software raised $90M Series C led by KKR. 300% YoY bookings growth, expanding Europe/Asia/NA for platform innovation/governance.

depthfirst — AI security startup secured $80M Series B. Developing models for crypto smart contracts, targeting Fortune 500 security modernization.

Qodo — Code verification raised $70M Series B to enhance AI-generated code trust. Works with Nvidia/Walmart for software reliability.

Censys — Internet intelligence platform secured $70M: $40M Series D led by Morgan Stanley + $30M debt for global expansion/product innovation.

Enterprise AI Agent — Former Coatue partner raised $65M seed for AI startup automating complex workflows for Fortune 500.

Cognichip — AI chip design tools raised $60M to cut costs 75%+ and development time by half. No demonstrated chip yet, facing established competition.

Monarch Quantum — Quantum tech raised $55M growth round for Quantum Light Engines. $60M+ contracts from NASA/Quantinuum, expanding photonic control systems.

ThinkLabs AI — Grid intelligence startup raised $28M Series A led by EIP. AI-powered platform modernizing electric grid for AI workload electricity demand.

Valinor — Ex-Blackstone professionals raised $25M seed led by Castle Island Ventures. Automates private lending workflows on public blockchains for crypto/fintech firms.

Treeline — US Modern IT OS raised $25M Series A led by a16z. Automates IT/security/compliance with AI, resolving 98% of requests, redefining service delivery.

Variance — Risk/compliance for financial institutions startup secured $21.5M Series A led by Ten Eleven Ventures. AI agents streamline KYC/fraud detection.

Jimini Health — AI mental health startup raised $17M seed for chatbot Sage integrating with healthcare systems to mitigate unsupervised chatbot risks.

memQ — Quantum networking startup raised $10M Series A co-led by Quantonation/Ocean Azul. Connecting quantum systems over optical telecom links for computing scalability.

Alien — Trust infrastructure startup raised $7.1M pre-seed for decentralized identity verification. Continuous human verification tying AI agents to humans.

Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs

OpenAI — Acquired TBPN daily tech talk show for narrative control as CEO Sam Altman faces Elon Musk in court over editorial independence concerns.

Mercury — Acquired Central AI-native payroll/benefits platform serving nearly 500 startups, processing $175M+ payroll for comprehensive banking experience.

Blacklane — Uber acquiring Berlin luxury chauffeur service to boost Elite executive travel. Raised $100M+ since 2011, pending regulatory approval.

Allbirds — SF footwear selling assets to American Exchange Group for $39M, down from $348M 2021 IPO valuation. Shares rose 36%, requires shareholder approval.

Rec Room — Social gaming platform once valued $3.5B shutting June 1. 150M+ players but monetization struggles led to layoffs and closure.

Yupp — SF crowdsourced AI model-picking service shutting despite $33M raise. 1.3M users but couldn’t achieve product-market fit as AI landscape evolved.

Cinemersive Labs — Sony Interactive acquired UK startup converting 2D photos to 3D volumes. Team joins Visual Computing Group for PS5 ml visuals.

Hailo — Israeli AI chip startup merging with SPAC, valuation cut from $1.2B to under $500M. Delek Automotive losses, 10% layoffs, $9M loan.

d-Matrix — AI tech startup acquired GigaIO data center business for AI inference capabilities. SuperNODE/FabreX™ tech strengthens SoCal engineering presence.

Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:

SpaceX — Preparing IPO Project Apex with 21 banks. Expected June at $1.75T valuation in significant market debut. Targeting $75B.

Franklin Templeton — Acquiring CoinFund crypto spinoff to boost cryptocurrency offerings. Forms 250 Digital for institutional investors, expanding crypto market presence.

Zhongji Innolight — Chinese optics firm and Nvidia supplier confidentially filed for Hong Kong IPO. Net income 10.8B yuan ($1.6B) for 2025.

Quantum Computing Firms — Several firms planning 2026 IPOs as sector shifts from research to commercialization. IBM/Google advancements validate investor confidence in quantum potential.

Nasdaq — “Fast entry” rule allows large-cap companies into Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days post-IPO. Benefits SpaceX at $1.75T pmv, influencing $30T in assets.

VC & PE Activity To Watch

[Open] 5(c) Capital — VC raising $35M for prediction market startups backed by Kalshi/Polymarket CEOs. Targets 20 companies, investors include Marc Andreessen.

Corazon Capital — Chicago VC closed $100M fourth fund for pre-seed/seed/Series A AI-native startups. Focuses on human experience tech with key partner promotions.

Gateway Capital — Midwest VC closed first $25M tranche of Fund II for early-stage fintech/healthcare tech. Leveraging local opportunities in competitive Midwest landscape.

Kleiner Perkins — Raised $3.5B: $1B early-stage, $2.5B late-stage growth. Heavily investing in AI startups, benefiting from Figma IPO, Windsurf acqui-hire by Google.

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